Friday, June 06, 2008

Premature Electoral Simulation

ABC news has an electoral-calculator interactive-map thang, so I clicked on the states and allotted them according to how they went in the last 4 elections (which it shows you as you hover.) Three or four times red, you're red. Three or four times blue, you're blue. That just left (something like) Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, WV as tied twice red, twice blue. So… go back one more election to get 3 out of 5. The website doesn't show 5 elections ago, so peek at wikipedia or maybe here to see 5 rounds ago, 1988!

Unfortunately, 1988 was Dukakis's year, and he only adds WV. The others would go to McCain *IF* history is our guide (but it ain't!). Doing this completely mechanically, I look to see who won, but it produces the unfortunate TIE of 269-269. 270 needed to win. Noooo! El Courto Supremo decido againo.

Regarding the image, where it says "Hover over state for detail," that's not referring to your mouse. You have to actual ly hover over the state. The same goes for clicking the state. You need to physically click the actual state to change its color. Sorry for any misunderstanding.

Wait a sec. The Supreme Court is constitutionally prohibited from meddling in the states' elections notwithstanding the unfortunate exception of the 2000 Judicial Coup d'etat that installed Resident G.W. Bush. The decision is supposed to go to the House (or isn't it a rare "joint" session of Congress?) and be decided there. In that case, Obama wins.

OK, that tie was scary but it's just a history-based simulation. Things look better at the poll-based and contemporary-reality-based which (today) has Obama winning and ahead by 60 Electoral votes getting Ohio, Missouri, and Colorado while letting the McCainites eat up Michigan and WV. Fair trade. VA and Indiana are in statistical limbo.

It looks like the election will be fought in the midwest and Ohio River valley area and if they are sick of war, McCain's out unless they believe his new line that the war will be over soon and Iraq will peacefully accept American bases like Korea, Germany, or Japan --for the next hundred years.

Watch for VPs to be named from this area???

I hope Obama goes for the borderline states and builds a Diebold-hack-proof majority rather than gunning for Montana and so on.

If attacked by the Supremos, I also hope he won't lie down and die like Al Gore did during the Coup but will fight as they do in Mexico and other proud countries when tyrants steal their elections. I wonder if Clinton would accept that kind of treatment, or would mobilize a street-level army?

Following the election, it's time for a trial or tribunal of the lying pRes and Vice-P. To reduce the growth and cost of government, federal employees hired since 2001 should be suspended pending a review. Laws passed by the illegal government should also be suspended pending legislative review. The Supreme Court inJustices responsible for the coup should be impeached and replaced. It would be a good idea to have a mandatory retirement age or term limit on them, too. I'm not saying this should take up more than 10 or 20% of the time and attention of the new government, but it needs to be done and should not be overlooked.

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