Breaking down the environmental radioactivity monitoring data from MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and whatnot)

As reported in the Asahi:

The science ministry has begun posting real-time radiation levels on its website at 2,700 locations across Fukushima Prefecture, including schools and parks.
To access radiation levels measured at 10-minute intervals, go to http://radiomap.mext.go.jp/ja/.

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201202220028

A picture of the equipment:
https://dwqovw6qi0vie.cloudfront.net/article-imgs/en/2012/02/22/AJ201202220028/AJ201202220029M.jpg

Checking out today's data at
http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/map/ja/area.html

Let's do some math...

Consider the maximum acceptable radiation dose for the public from any man-made facility: 1 mSv/year.
1 mSv/year is 1000 μSv/year.
1000 μSv/year is 0.114 μSv/h.
(Based on 8766 hours in a year (24×365.25) and 1000 microsieverts(μSv) in a millisievert (mSv).
Therefore any place with over 0.114 μSv/h is questionable.

Japan set a limit 20 times higher, 20mSv/year, for Fukushima residents.

Residents exposed at that level would reach the 350 mSv/lifetime limit which was used to determine evacuation areas after the Chernobyl disaster within 18 years.
Using the Chernobyl lifetime standard, calculating for a 10-year old child with an additional 70 years life expectancy, 350mSv/70years = 5mSv/year.

Recapping, the 1 mSv/year international standard is exceeded by the Chernobyl evacuation standard, which (if judged to be tolerable) could conceivably justify 5 mSv/year for kids (twice that for 35-year-olds, etc.), and that was exceeded by the 20 mSv/year Japanese Fukushima-only standard, which I believe was set at that level for political reasons only, to set a standard that would avoid the need to evacuate several large cities and partially sever northern Japan from the south and middle.

Some selected ranges of readings for locations today, Sunday, April 29, 2012:

Fukushima-ken locations:
MinamiSoma     0.080 - 5.036 μSv/h = 0.701 - 44.14 mSv/year
Fukushima City     0.092 - 1.764 μSv/h = 0.806 - 15.46 mSv/year
NihonMatsu     0.113 - 1.324 μSv/h = 0.990 - 11.60 mSv/year
Koriyama     0.067 - 1.379 μSv/h = 0.587 - 12.08 mSv/year
Sukagawa City     0.098 - 0.727 μSv/h = 0.859 - 6.372 mSv/year
Soma City     0.093 - 1.125 μSv/h = 0.815 - 9.862 mSv/year
Iwaki City     0.054 - 0.819 μSv/h = 0.473 - 7.179 mSv/year
Aizu-Wakamatsu     0.054 - 0.290 μSv/h = 0.473 - 2.542 mSv/year

Outside Fukushima-ken:
Tochigi-ken     0.036 - 0.593 μSv/h = 0.315 - 5.198 mSv/year
Miyagi-ken     0.033 - 0.367 μSv/h = 0.289 - 3.217 mSv/year
Ibaraki-ken     0.048 - 0.178 μSv/h = 0.420 - 1.560 mSv/year
Chiba-ken     0.037 - 0.172 μSv/h = 0.324 - 1.507 mSv/year
Gunma-ken     0.026 - 0.154 μSv/h = 0.228 - 1.349 mSv/year
Saitama-ken     0.027 - 0.154 μSv/h = 0.236 - 1.349 mSv/year
Tokyo-to     0.037 - 0.064 μSv/h = 0.324 - 0.561 mSv/year

If you use the lifetime-exposure evacuation standard for Chernobyl applied to children, all children should be evacuated from all of the cities measured in eastern Fukushima prefecture, with the exception of Aizu-Wakamatsu, which is more central, but which still exceeds the 1 mSv/year international standard for the nuclear power industry. Some sites in Tochigi prefecture also exceed the Chernobyl standard and should evacuate children.

All of these prefectures in the Kanto region have at least a few MEXT radiation measurement stations (which are very limited in number outside Fukushima, by the way, 5 stations in Tokyo, 7 in Chiba, etc) which record levels above the 1 mSv/year international standard. By that standard, Kanto is barely tolerable.

Numbers here in Chiba:
html at http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/html/12/12000.html
2012年04月29日 20時00分時点

市原市　県環境研究センター  0.037μSv/h

柏市　市立田中小学校  0.116μSv/h

印西市　市立船穂中学校  0.170μSv/h

香取市　香取市役所小見川区事務所  0.082μSv/h

市川市　市立大柏小学校  0.104μSv/h

館山市　県安房農業普及センター跡地  0.059μSv/h

茂原市　県大気汚染常時監視測定局  0.051μSv/h

In Chiba, Kashiwa (柏市) and Inzai (印西市) both exceed the 1 milliSievert/year limit for added radiation from nuclear power.

Seismic record

http://www.kyoshin.bosai.go.jp/kyoshin/topics/html20110311144626/main_20110311144626.html

Here are some seismic records, in case you want to use the recording on a large turntable-like device to re-play earthquakes.

One thing I still find amazing yet absolutely accurate is that 5 minutes after the start of the earthquake it is still rocking at an intensity of Shindo 3 over a wide area. 

"Contaminated Zone" in Chiba

Radiation spread reaches Chiba, Saitama prefectures - AJW by The Asahi Shimbun

» In Chiba Prefecture, the highest levels of cesium-137, between 30,000 and 60,000 becquerels per square meter, were detected in northern areas, such as Kashiwa, Matsudo, Abiko and Nagareyama. Cesium-137 has a half-life of 30 years.
In the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident, areas with 37,000 becquerels or more of radioactivity per square meter were designated contaminated zones, while levels of 555,000 becquerels or more required forcible relocation.
In Chiba and Saitama prefectures, the highest radiation levels were 0.2 to 0.5 microsievert per hour. In most other areas, the radiation levels were 0.1 microsievert or less.

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/fukushima/AJ2011093012746

Asahi: Education Ministry's radiation map

Weather, deteriorating reactors exacerbated disaster
By HIROSHI ISHIZUKA
Staff Writer of the vernacular Asahi Shimbun
The education ministry measured the accumulated amount of radioactive cesium in areas within a 160-kilometer radius from the Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant through the use of aircraft in late July.
Details of the Atomic Energy Society of Japan panel's findings will be published on the society's website.

Chernobyl of the sea

Surprise, surprise. Radioactive isotopes do not magically disperse evenly across the oceans to trace levels, but are deposited on the sea floor just as they are on the surface of the earth. I've heard of a few tests on the sea surface but haven't heard any mention until now of a mapping of the sea floor.

Seabed radiation 100-1,000 times normal level off Fukushima plant | Kyodo News
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/05/89167.html
Radiation readings have risen to 100-1,000 times the normal level on the Pacific seabed near the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the operator said Tuesday.

Hot Schools in Fukushima

http://atmc.jp/ has added a national radiation map to their existing database which includes air, soil, rain, food. They have also added a map of radiation at Fukushima Prefecture schools, http://atmc.jp/school/ as measured by the Fukushima Prefecture Disaster Office over three days, at present.

Bad news in this map is that schools in Fukushima City and elsewhere with numbers up around 4 to 6 microsieverts per hour are far above the 20 MILLIsieverts per year the govt is setting as an evacuation threshold. Do the math: Anything over 2.3 MICROsieverts an hour will accumulate to more than 20 MILLIsieverts a year. They should err on the side of caution considering: the intl standard for added dose is 1 millisievert annually, not 20; these are children, not adults; there is a possibility of ingesting and inhaling radioactive particles; and emissions and deposition levels are continuing and accumulating. They should evacuate.

One argument against evacuation is that these levels may be temporary, and go down soon, but that is doubtful. Even if so, I think they should temporarily evacuate the cities of Fukushima (290,000ppl), Nihonmatsu (61,000ppl), and Sukagawa (80,000ppl), or, if that is impossible, evacuate at least the children. Note that our levels down here in Chiba are 0.055 microsieverts per hour today, only 1% of what is measured at some of those schools. (compare to 5.5)

If the govt keep to their stated standard of evacuating places with a risk of accumulating over 20millisieverts/year, then they will announce an evacuation. If they keep to their established precedent of moving slowly (and erring on the side of radiation), the announcement will come in about 2 weeks (and allow another month to take effect).

Using the slider on the school map also reveals wider investigations done on previous days. I guess they are not cumulatively added to the map because yesterday's measurements may have changed by today. There are 2 measurements: at 1cm (above the soil, I assume), and 1 meter.

Measurements of the known VERY radioactive areas were done mostly on the first day.

Radiation Plumes

http://atmc.jp/
has added radioactivity plume forecasts from various (foreign--and domestic!) sources

拡散予測： 日本気象庁 | ドイツ気象局 | オーストリア気象局 | イギリス気象局 | ノルウェー気象局 | 台湾気象局

with translate.google

Diffusion:

Japan Meteorological Agency | Weather Bureau Germany | Austria Weather Bureau | Bureau of Meteorology, UK | Norwegian Meteorological Bureau | Bureau of Meteorology Taiwan

JMA finally gets into the act
(excuse was that it wouldn't be very accurate)
and they release pdfs
in English too tho
but this website turned them into an animation (better!).
http://atmc.jp/jma/

Here's the forecast the Germans have come up with to warn people.
http://www.dwd.de/wundk/spezial/Sonderbericht_loop.gif

http://atmc.jp/austria/
go directly there
http://www.zamg.ac.at/
->
http://www.zamg.ac.at/wetter/fukushima/
= the new dedicated link from the Austrians (Österreicheren?)

http://www.eurad.uni-koeln.de/index_e.html
im Kõln
Click on the picture to see the animations

via Taiwan
http://atmc.jp/taiwan/

The Norveegians!
http://atmc.jp/norway/

The UK
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/news/fukushima?LANG=en&VAR=radiationover
This is your webcam on nukeplant
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/news/fukushima?LANG=en&VAR=webcam

(reposted-- from at facebook originally)

Statistical Handbook of Japan

If you are interested in Japan and numerate (numerically literate?), you may want to read the newest statistical digest. This book may also be available at the government printing office bookstore in Otemachi (if it's still there) or in bookstores, but you can view it online or download each chapter separately (in English) in pdf form from the website:
http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/handbook/index.htm

Civilization and its Discontents

I was addicted to Civ 1 but successfully overcame the addiction in the early days, knowing it was as dangerous as crack or meth. I think it was on Mac OS 8 or 9. Oddly, I continued to buy multiple editions of Civilization--but resisted playing the game. The software is still in the boxes, unopened, for OS platforms (10.2?, 10.3?) becoming obsolete now. None of that matters now, because on the Linux platform, there is FreeCiv. That's like giving free drugs to the recovering addict. Worse still, Freeciv.net puts it out on the internet. As great and dangerous as that is, an antidote exists. The solution is as simple as the problem. Should you ever find yourself not sleeping for days on end due to ongoing disputes with Mao Zedong, Lincoln, Caesar, and/or Catherine the Great, Civilization Anonymous, or CivAnon, offers peer support and explains the dangers. If you experience any of the symptoms, see how other addicts have clawed their way back to a partial, tentative recovery.

Google Charts QR-Code API

Google charts dynamically generates various kinds of charts as you need them--right in your browser or on a web page. Venn diagrams, bar graphs, pie graphs, and even maps are available! An interesting one is the dynamic generation of QR codes. A very appealing feature is that you can set the EC (error correction) level on these. I didn't see this in other online QR code generators. EC level H allows your code to be readable even if 30% of your code is obscured. That should be ideal for the purpose of embedding it in a manipulated image. It compares to the default level L, which only allows 7% of the data to be restored. Version number is set automatically depending on your request. I'm a little drunk now, so I may not be able to summarize it very well. Al Khahol can make you geeky (cuz it definitely don't make you sexy (unless the opposing party is even more drunk)).
Basically, you start with
http://chart.apis.google.com/
and add the chart type (cht)
chart?cht=qr
to indicate you are making a QR chart. Then you can add the other specifications or parameters, such as size. You can't get much smaller than 40 for a QR code, and I'm not sure what the upper limit is… (177x177 -- but you could be using multiple pixels per bit). Suppose it's 200x200.
&chs=200x200
That (chart size, chs) is obligatory. The output encoding default is UTF8 so you don't really need to add that. You could encode you Japanese kanji using Shift_JIS
&choe=Shift_JIS
otherwise you can leave it out. ISO-8859-1 is also available, whatever the hell that is.
Specify the L, lingual string(?) with
&chl=your text string here
Then my favorite part ,
chld=<L, M, Q, or H>|
This is the EC and margin, where you can specify error correction and margins, according to Google,

Four levels of error correction (EC) are available. The default level (L) allows the QR code to be read even if up to 7% of the code is misread, missing, or obscured. Other levels provide error correction for codes where up to 30% of the code cannot be read. The number of characters that can be encoded decreases as the EC level increases. See Versions, error correction and maximum characters for details.

The default margin is 4 modules. This means that a blank space equivalent to four rows at the top and bottom and four columns on the left and right is placed around the QR code. This is the minimum required by QR readers.

Optionally, specify an EC level and margin with
chld=|
Where:
is one of the following:
L allows 7% of a QR code to be restored
M allows 15% of a QR code to be restored
Q allows 25% of a QR code to be restored
H allows 30% of a QR code to be restored
and
defines the margin (or blank space) around the QR code. The default image has a margin equivalent to 4 rows / columns of the chart.

examples:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=qr&&chs=240x240&chl=http://www.blues-tea-cha.blogspot.com/&chld=L|2
looks like
while
http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=qr&&chs=240x240&chl=http://www.blues-tea-cha.blogspot.com/&chld=H|2
looks like

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=qr&chs=50x50&chl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.blues-tea-cha.blogspot.com&chld=%3CH%3E|%3C2%3E
Some characters will change in the browser URL to appear as follows:
http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=qr&&chs=50x50&choe=UTF-8&chl=http://www.blues-tea-cha.blogspot.com/&chld=%3CH%3E|%3C2%3E
so don't be confused.

If you type
http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=p3&chd=t:90,10&chs=440x220&chl=Pacman|ghost
you get


Even more interesting is maps. For example, type (or cut and paste) http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=t&chs=400x200&chd=s:_&chtm=world into your browser (or insert on your web site) and this map will appear.


440x220 seems to be the maximum size.
http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?cht=t&chs=440x220&chd=s:_&chtm=usa

CH4 on Planet Four

Major news: A NASA press release today and article in Science gives details of the emissions of methane from the surface of Mars. This would seem to raise the probability of finding life to 50% or better. I checked Intrade to see if they were offering a contract on it; they weren't (altho Steve Jobs leaving as CEO this year was at 70%). Some people posting on news sites seem to be resistant to any ideas of life beyond the Earth, but it's really not unexpected, as meteor impacts have thrown tons of matter from Mars to Earth and vice versa over the millions and billions of years. They'll get their heads around it before too long. 

Ozone Hole Watch

Monitor our planet's ozone layer with the help of NASA. 

Yet another electoral scoreboard

Take the median value of all polls in a state over the last month for each state. Use that as the best guess of how the state will vote. I admire the simplicity of that approach, especially since I am also a big fan of the power of the median as opposed to the overrated mean or average. Calculating the median also saves energy or computing power. Their method is not only simple but powerfully predictive. This method, (Gott and Colley's Median Poll Statistics), predicted 49 out of 50 states correctly in 2004. It currently has Obama getting 273 votes due to adding IA, CO, and NM to Kerry's 2004 states. Which polls to use? They use (the same ones as) RCP although you could theoretically add more polls and get an even better result since the median method automatically eliminates outliers. Mr Gott has done a good job with the map, too. (It would make a good quilt, RISK board, or pendant of fuse beads AKA iron beads in Japan.)

Cognitive Mapping

I am a map fanatic, so Strange Maps is a wonderful discovery.

http://strangemaps.wordpress.com/
That may lead you to this, one of several hundred… strange maps.
http://strangemaps.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/1942world1600.jpg