Showing posts with label Earth. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Earth. Show all posts

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Breaking down the environmental radioactivity monitoring data from MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology and whatnot)

As reported in the Asahi:

The science ministry has begun posting real-time radiation levels on its website at 2,700 locations across Fukushima Prefecture, including schools and parks.
To access radiation levels measured at 10-minute intervals, go to http://radiomap.mext.go.jp/ja/.
http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201202220028

A picture of the equipment:
https://dwqovw6qi0vie.cloudfront.net/article-imgs/en/2012/02/22/AJ201202220028/AJ201202220029M.jpg

Checking out today's data at
http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/map/ja/area.html

Let's do some math...

Consider the maximum acceptable radiation dose for the public from any man-made facility: 1 mSv/year.
1 mSv/year is 1000 μSv/year.
1000 μSv/year is 0.114 μSv/h.
(Based on 8766 hours in a year (24×365.25) and 1000 microsieverts(μSv) in a millisievert (mSv).
Therefore any place with over 0.114 μSv/h is questionable.

Japan set a limit 20 times higher, 20mSv/year, for Fukushima residents.

Residents exposed at that level would reach the 350 mSv/lifetime limit which was used to determine evacuation areas after the Chernobyl disaster within 18 years.
Using the Chernobyl lifetime standard, calculating for a 10-year old child with an additional 70 years life expectancy, 350mSv/70years = 5mSv/year.

Recapping, the 1 mSv/year international standard is exceeded by the Chernobyl evacuation standard, which (if judged to be tolerable) could conceivably justify 5 mSv/year for kids (twice that for 35-year-olds, etc.), and that was exceeded by the 20 mSv/year Japanese Fukushima-only standard, which I believe was set at that level for political reasons only, to set a standard that would avoid the need to evacuate several large cities and partially sever northern Japan from the south and middle.

Some selected ranges of readings for locations today, Sunday, April 29, 2012:

Fukushima-ken locations:
MinamiSoma     0.080 - 5.036 μSv/h = 0.701 - 44.14 mSv/year
Fukushima City     0.092 - 1.764 μSv/h = 0.806 - 15.46 mSv/year
NihonMatsu     0.113 - 1.324 μSv/h = 0.990 - 11.60 mSv/year
Koriyama     0.067 - 1.379 μSv/h = 0.587 - 12.08 mSv/year
Sukagawa City     0.098 - 0.727 μSv/h = 0.859 - 6.372 mSv/year
Soma City     0.093 - 1.125 μSv/h = 0.815 - 9.862 mSv/year
Iwaki City     0.054 - 0.819 μSv/h = 0.473 - 7.179 mSv/year
Aizu-Wakamatsu     0.054 - 0.290 μSv/h = 0.473 - 2.542 mSv/year

Outside Fukushima-ken:
Tochigi-ken     0.036 - 0.593 μSv/h = 0.315 - 5.198 mSv/year
Miyagi-ken     0.033 - 0.367 μSv/h = 0.289 - 3.217 mSv/year
Ibaraki-ken     0.048 - 0.178 μSv/h = 0.420 - 1.560 mSv/year
Chiba-ken     0.037 - 0.172 μSv/h = 0.324 - 1.507 mSv/year
Gunma-ken     0.026 - 0.154 μSv/h = 0.228 - 1.349 mSv/year
Saitama-ken     0.027 - 0.154 μSv/h = 0.236 - 1.349 mSv/year
Tokyo-to     0.037 - 0.064 μSv/h = 0.324 - 0.561 mSv/year

If you use the lifetime-exposure evacuation standard for Chernobyl applied to children, all children should be evacuated from all of the cities measured in eastern Fukushima prefecture, with the exception of Aizu-Wakamatsu, which is more central, but which still exceeds the 1 mSv/year international standard for the nuclear power industry. Some sites in Tochigi prefecture also exceed the Chernobyl standard and should evacuate children.

All of these prefectures in the Kanto region have at least a few MEXT radiation measurement stations (which are very limited in number outside Fukushima, by the way, 5 stations in Tokyo, 7 in Chiba, etc) which record levels above the 1 mSv/year international standard. By that standard, Kanto is barely tolerable.

Numbers here in Chiba:
html at http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/html/12/12000.html
2012年04月29日 20時00分時点

  • 市原市 県環境研究センター  0.037μSv/h


  • 柏市 市立田中小学校  0.116μSv/h
  • 印西市 市立船穂中学校  0.170μSv/h
  • 香取市 香取市役所小見川区事務所  0.082μSv/h
  • 市川市 市立大柏小学校  0.104μSv/h
  • 館山市 県安房農業普及センター跡地  0.059μSv/h
  • 茂原市 県大気汚染常時監視測定局  0.051μSv/h


  • In Chiba, Kashiwa (柏市) and Inzai (印西市) both exceed the 1 milliSievert/year limit for added radiation from nuclear power.

    Friday, April 20, 2012

    Monday, April 16, 2012

    11,000 fuel rods, 85×Chernobyl at Fukushima Dai-Ichi site

    Sometimes i worry.
    A potential 85 × Chernobyls worth of radioactivity on-site in 11,000 spent fuel rods, parts of the site already too radioactive for humans or robots to approach, spent fuel pools suspended 30 meters in the air requiring constant cooling, structurally unsound. Only one spent fuel pool or reactor needs to go kablooey to make the site uninhabitable, at which point we can only retreat and try to deal with it from afar, perhaps with fly-overs like in Chernobyl. Even their best-case scenarios call for developing technology to try to clean up the site in 40 years or so, more likely not in centuries.

    http://akiomatsumura.com/2012/04/682.html

    Japan’s former Ambassador to Switzerland, Mr. Mitsuhei Murata, was invited to speak at the Public Hearing of the Budgetary Committee of the House of Councilors on March 22, 2012, on the Fukushima nuclear power plants accident. Before the Committee, Ambassador Murata strongly stated that if the crippled building of reactor unit 4—with 1,535 fuel rods in the spent fuel pool 100 feet (30 meters) above the ground—collapses, not only will it cause a shutdown of all six reactors but will also affect the common spent fuel pool containing 6,375 fuel rods, located some 50 meters from reactor 4. In both cases the radioactive rods are not protected by a containment vessel; dangerously, they are open to the air. This would certainly cause a global catastrophe like we have never before experienced. He stressed that the responsibility of Japan to the rest of the world is immeasurable. Such a catastrophe would affect us all for centuries. Ambassador Murata informed us that the total numbers of the spent fuel rods at the Fukushima Daiichi site excluding the rods in the pressure vessel is 11,421 (396+615+566+1,535+994+940+6375).

    I asked top spent-fuel pools expert Mr. Robert Alvarez, former Senior Policy Adviser to the Secretary and Deputy Assistant Secretary for National Security and the Environment at the U.S. Department of Energy, for an explanation of the potential impact of the 11,421 rods.

    I received an astounding response from Mr. Alvarez [updated 4/5/12]:
    "In recent times, more information about the spent fuel situation at the Fukushima-Dai-Ichi site has become known. It is my understanding that of the 1,532 spent fuel assemblies in reactor No. 304 assemblies are fresh and unirradiated. This then leaves 1,231 irradiated spent fuel rods in pool No. 4, which contain roughly 37 million curies (~1.4E+18 Becquerel) of long-lived radioactivity. The No. 4 pool is about 100 feet above ground, is structurally damaged and is exposed to the open elements. If an earthquake or other event were to cause this pool to drain this could result in a catastrophic radiological fire involving nearly 10 times the amount of Cs-137 released by the Chernobyl accident.
    The infrastructure to safely remove this material was destroyed as it was at the other three reactors. Spent reactor fuel cannot be simply lifted into the air by a crane as if it were routine cargo. In order to prevent severe radiation exposures, fires and possible explosions, it must be transferred at all times in water and heavily shielded structures into dry casks.. As this has never been done before, the removal of the spent fuel from the pools at the damaged Fukushima-Dai-Ichi reactors will require a major and time-consuming re-construction effort and will be charting in unknown waters. Despite the enormous destruction cased at the Da–Ichi site, dry casks holding a smaller amount of spent fuel appear to be unscathed."

    Based on U.S. Energy Department data, assuming a total of 11,138 spent fuel assemblies are being stored at the Dai-Ichi site, nearly all, which is in pools. They contain roughly 336 million curies (~1.2 E+19 Bq) of long-lived radioactivity. About 134 million curies is Cesium-137 — roughly 85 times the amount of Cs-137 released at the Chernobyl accident as estimated by the U.S. National Council on Radiation Protection (NCRP). The total spent reactor fuel inventory at the Fukushima-Daichi site contains nearly half of the total amount of Cs-137 estimated by the NCRP to have been released by all atmospheric nuclear weapons testing, Chernobyl, and world-wide reprocessing plants (~270 million curies or ~9.9 E+18 Becquerel).

    It is important for the public to understand that reactors that have been operating for decades, such as those at the Fukushima-Dai-Ichi site have generated some of the largest concentrations of radioactivity on the planet. "

    Many of our readers might find it difficult to appreciate the actual meaning of the figure, yet we can grasp what 85 times more Cesium-137 than the Chernobyl would mean. It would destroy the world environment and our civilization. This is not rocket science, nor does it connect to the pugilistic debate over nuclear power plants. This is an issue of human survival.

    Tuesday, August 23, 2011

    Who moved my climate?

    Climate warming accelerates Arctic migration for some species
    http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/climate-warming-accelerates-arctic-migration-some-species?page=full
    "These changes are equivalent to animals and plants shifting away from the Equator at around 20 cm per hour,” added Thomas, Prof of Conservation Biology. “This has been going on for the last 40 years and is set to continue for at least the rest of this century.”
    Call it the Goldilocks syndrome. Animals and plants are moving both higher in latitude and elevation much faster than previously thought in response to climate warming. They're chasing that "just right" sweet spot, but it keeps moving.

    Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming
    http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6045/1024.abstract
    The distributions of many terrestrial organisms are currently shifting in latitu...de or elevation in response to changing climate. Using a meta-analysis, we estimated that the distributions of species have recently shifted to higher elevations

    Monday, August 15, 2011

    Komatsu Sakyo (Japan Sinks)

    Death of a sci-fi pioneer | The Japan Times Online
    http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/ed20110814a1.html
    On July 26, Komatsu Sakyo, a pioneer in Japanese science fiction, died at the age of 80. Born in Osaka in 1931, he witnessed firsthand the devastation of World War II. After graduating from Kyoto University with a degree in Italian literature ...
    By chance, the announcement in the book by an American geodesic group of a massive shift in the earth's crust centered on the Japanese archipelago takes place on March 11, with Mount Fuji erupting the next day.

    Wednesday, August 10, 2011

    Nuukliyur eksplouzhans 1945-1998

    Japanese artist Isao Hashimoto has created a beautiful, undeniably scary time-lapse map of the 2053 nuclear explosions which have taken place between 1945 and 1998, beginning with the Manhattan Project's "Trinity" test near Los Alamos and concluding with Pakistan's nuclear tests in May of 1998. This leaves out North Korea's two alleged nuclear tests in this past decade (the legitimacy of both of which is not 100% clear).
    Each nation gets a blip and a flashing dot on the map whenever they detonate a nuclear weapon, with a running tally kept on the top and bottom bars of the screen. Hashimoto, who began the project in 2003, says that he created it with the goal of showing"the fear and folly of nuclear weapons." It starts really slow — if you want to see real action, skip ahead to 1962 or so — but the buildup becomes overwhelming.
    http://www.ctbto.org/specials/1945-1998-by-isao-hashimoto/

    Saturday, June 11, 2011

    Recompute

    Recompute - Sustainable Cardboard Computer
    http://recomputepc.com/index.php
    Say Hello to Recompute! Learn what Recompute is all about and how small changes can make a big impact in our world.

    Friday, April 15, 2011

    Japanquake and radiation

    http://www.japanquakemap.com/
    Relive the quakes from a different perspektiv visually and spatially.

    yet another radiation monitoring site
    http://rdtn.org/

    JT
    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/radiation-levels.html

    Thursday, April 07, 2011

    April 7 retrospektiv (link dump)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LPGzzaSsbU
    Japan Earthquake - Ground shifts, water seeps during quake in Chiba, Japan

    blackcat123ciao in Urayasu, who also had liquefaction
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy-MOZwr5G0

    A better example of it getting a little out of hand indoors was the one in Mito:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mj17QnmTzng

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FsOw2SKhxM
    Mito City

    水戸市の震災状況 (3.11 15:15頃 M7.4余震時)

    Liquefaction in NZ
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/stevetaylors/5489428369/

    Liquefaction demonstration in a wheelbarrow
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/christchurch-earthquake-videos/news/video.cfm?c_id=1503037&gal_cid=1503037&gallery_id=117058


    driving inside the evacuated zone, seeing many abandoned animals
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp9iJ3pPuL8&feature=share
    http://www.videonews.com/

    Tokyo - The Japanese government has issued the evacuation order on March 12 for the residents living within the 20 kilometer radius of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Since then, residents have left their homes...



    http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110316-1.pdf
    English language pdf pamflet from NISA, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.
    http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/

    "Pay attention
    not to fall victim to
    rumors or
    Demonstrations."

    You wouldn't want to be a victim of a political, educational, or awareness-raising campaign. Better to be a victim of government and industrial corporate nuclear blunders and misinformation campaigns. If you are exposed to a demonstration, return home, remove and wash your brain thoroughly in a solution of warm soapy water and concentrated Iodine 134, and visit the TEPCO or NISA website for further instructions.

    http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/analysis-radiation-fixes-may-help-fukushima-exclusion-zone
    Give up the land, plant a forest, come back in 150 years. What about the sea? Will radioactive elements bioaccumulate?

    http://www.victorpost.com/highlight/x796069628/Cheryl-Miller-Japans-earthquake-More-to-the-story-than-radiation
    Hope this is true. It assumes everything is over now...

    http://www.vjy2010.jp/cp/detail/detail.php?shopid=20091127-3235 Ishinomori Mangattan Museum

    “There is some trial and error,” said Kuni Yogo, a former atomic energy policy planner in Japan’s Science and Technology Agency. “But this is the beginning of a three- to five-year effort to seize the damage.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/30/world/asia/30japan.html?pagewanted=all


    http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USTRE72S2UA20110329
    great article


    http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/fl20110329zg.html
    http://quakebook.blogspot.com/

    http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110329n1.html
    As of 11 p.m. Saturday, some 99 products, including milk and vegetables, were found contaminated in Tokyo and five prefectures to its north and east, according to the ministry's statement on its website.
    Chiba detected above-maximum radiation on 11 vegetables, including red-leaf lettuce, Kyodo reported Sunday.



    http://robgilhooly.photoshelter.com/gallery/JAPAN-EARTHQUAKE-2011/G0000yDG6JxqEqG4/
    #86(?) This is the end of the estimated tsunami inundation area. Get past here and you should be good. Hello, Pooh Bear.


    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/eu_germany_radioactive_boars
    ...
    The German boars roam in forests nearly 950 miles (1,500 kilometers ) from Chernobyl. Yet, the amount of radioactive cesium-137 within their tissue often registers dozens of times beyond the recommended limit for consumption and thousands of times above...



    Monday, May 31, 2010

    BP-irates of the Caribbean


    BP-irates of the Caribbean: "Dead Man's Deepwater Horizon" -- coming soon to a coastline near you!

    Update: Perfectionism kicked in; I wasn't happy with kwik'n'dirty version and edited it.

    Tuesday, April 27, 2010

    Hide and Seek

    Stephen Hawking (not to be confused with Stephen King) says it may be best to Hide from Extra Terrestrial Intelligence.(You can still search for it, but be vewy vewy quiet.)

    Sunday, April 11, 2010

    Blow away the smoke

    I still hear people (but more commonly oil company commercials) saying that wind can only provide 15 or 20% of the energy society consumes. But, of course, if you scale your electrical grid up to, say, the size of the North American continent, the wind never stops blowing simultaneously over the entire continent, and there's no reason you can't get 100%, 200%, 500% of your energy needs from the wind, depending on how big you scale it up. This article supports that point, but I'm not sure how much good it will do compared to the many hours of commercial messages from the oil companies that TV viewers have seen.

    "...while it comes and goes locally, at this larger scale, the wind never really stops blowing.

    The researchers studied five years of wind observations during different seasons from 11 monitoring stations along the coast and developed a hypothetical "Atlantic Transmission Grid" that would string together a thin line of off-shore windmills along the Eastern Seaboard from Maine to Miami.

    Their results show daily weather data along this experimental Atlantic Transmission Grid "yields uninterrupted power output." Such a grid would connect five-megawatt off-shore turbines such as these (pictured) off the coast of Belgium."

    http://news.discovery.com/earth/power-of-the-wind-thinking-bigger.html

    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/03/29/0909075107.abstract

    see also
    http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2009/06/19/0904101106.abstract

    Both of those publications are free to download in their entirety as PDFs.

    Saturday, February 13, 2010

    Character Palette Panel Applet and Ringing Home

    Danke schön, Señor Gagné. That answers a lot of questions for me. The Character Palette panel applet (say fast 5 times) is now living in my top panel.

    On a completely unrelated note, as Monsieur Gagné has noted on his blog, you don't need to harbor any negative thoughts about the moon breaking up or our planet being eventually ringed with space junk. It turns out it's awfully pretty that way. Puts the moon to shame. The visual persuasion is below.

    Thursday, February 11, 2010

    Civilization and its Discontents

    I was addicted to Civ 1 but successfully overcame the addiction in the early days, knowing it was as dangerous as crack or meth. I think it was on Mac OS 8 or 9. Oddly, I continued to buy multiple editions of Civilization--but resisted playing the game. The software is still in the boxes, unopened, for OS platforms (10.2?, 10.3?) becoming obsolete now. None of that matters now, because on the Linux platform, there is FreeCiv. That's like giving free drugs to the recovering addict. Worse still, Freeciv.net puts it out on the internet. As great and dangerous as that is, an antidote exists. The solution is as simple as the problem. Should you ever find yourself not sleeping for days on end due to ongoing disputes with Mao Zedong, Lincoln, Caesar, and/or Catherine the Great, Civilization Anonymous, or CivAnon, offers peer support and explains the dangers. If you experience any of the symptoms, see how other addicts have clawed their way back to a partial, tentative recovery.

    Friday, January 15, 2010

    Strike dumb this fool, we beseech thee.

    Christofascist Buttcasting Nutwerx' 666 Klub host Rat Pobertson pulls some weird racist BS out of his ass. You'll have to listen carefully through his labored heavy breathing to make out what he's saying. This may be his biggest hate-speech hit since he called for the assassination of Hugo Chavez, a little fatwa from Jesusland.


    An entry at Wikipedia suggests he may be referring to Dutty Boukman. There are reports that a pig may have been fatally injured in the making of the republic.

    Members of the reality-based community are urged to send money to Haiti through more reputable channels.

    Wednesday, September 09, 2009

    Going Local in NM (Back to the LAN)



    Apparently, this guy --Doug Fine-- is on NPR (and has been on CNN at least once) but I haven't been listening to NPR for a year or so, so I must have missed him... but I read this reprinted in The Daily Yomiuri. A longer version is on his website.

    Here is a 2008 interview in "Smithsonian" and a critical look at the capital requirements of his kind of simplicity from Alternet.

    Monday, February 09, 2009

    Peace through Parks

    Throughout the last hundred years, there have been proposals for Peace through Unilateral Disarmament, Peace through Love, Peace through Strength, and Strength through Peace. Wars rage on.

    I propose Peace through Parks.

    First of all, note that many, (most?) but not all, of the world's many wars originate in border disputes. Russia-Georgia, the Falklands, Israel-Palestine, and others come to mind. By resolving all outstanding border disputes, war is less likely. Imagine if the property lines between you and your neighbors were not clearly defined, and you were all armed to the teeth and had some long-standing grudges. If you could at least agree on the property line, you could build a fence there and relax tensions.

    Secondly, note that the world can use as much greenery, preservation of nature, and parkland as it can get. Areas not exploited by humans are needed in every biome to preserve biodiversity and other Gaian systems.

    Basically, therefore, the proposal is to turn all disputed territory into international peace parks -- natural areas where human presence is prohibited.

    To work best, such a system would need some kind of sanction or push. Most of the world's nations would have to be sick of war and push the rest to agree to settle their border issues. They could block countries from having a vote in the UN General Assembly until they had resolved all disputes. Alternatively, countries with unresolved issues could be kept out of the latest trade agreements or the WTA.

    There could be a multi-stage process for this. The flowchart would go something like this, as follows. Nations would report their borders to the UN or another mediating authority. In cases where they disagreed, where two entities claimed the same territory, they would be given a chance to resolve it by mutual agreement, submit it to binding arbitration, or agree to remove all personnel and installations from the disputed area and allow it to revert to nature, either for perpetuity or for a century at a time. If you choose the century option, simply suspend all arguments and agree to discuss this issue again in 100 years time. The default option of creating international parklands would be the preferred wherever possible.

    Returning to our neighborhood analogy, you don't need to necessarily settle disputes with a surveyor's clear line. You can take the area between your line and their line, and grow a big hedge there, a stand of bamboo, or whatever grows there, an impenetrable brush, perhaps.

    How would this look in its actual implementation? Let's start near home, in Japan. Japan's claims to Sakhalin and some of the Kurile Islands would either be agreed to, resolved in favor of one of the parties, or the whole area would just be turned into a vast nature reserve. Where the sea is involved, the old 12-mile limit or a similar rule would probably be best. Bears and perhaps wooly mammoths would again roam and rule the land. Displaced persons would be compensated for the loss of their property. Call it a stimulus package, or create a system to generate income from the area to repay the displaced or to fund the compensation board.

    Also involving Japan, the Takeshima/Dokdo/Liancourt rocks/islands and the waters around them would make a good nature reserve. This place is a wasteland not worth the investments made in it (and certainly not worth fighting over). The fishery resources around it benefit both sides the most if the area is preserved as an undisturbed breeding ground to help sustain fish stocks in the open ocean. The resources on the immediate sea floor can be saved for another century. There are similar disputes with Taiwan and China, and between China, the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, and others, which can all be settled in the same way, by creating nature reserves.

    More complicated cases arise where large populations, third parties, or different cultures are involved, such as the Basques, South Ossetia, the former Yugoslavia, Kashmir, Tibet, and the Amazon. Without self-determination and devolved autonomy to indigenous people, this would not make much sense. In other words, it's better to give autonomy to Kashmir, or make it a nation (or two) than for India and Pakistan to settle the dispute by evacuating Kashmir.

    Let's take some extreme and potentially absurd cases. What if Mexico were to claim California, Texas, Colorado, and the rest of the southwest United States? The disputed area is probably too big to be considered as a park. Suppose then that, in addition, the settlement went Mexico's way, and these areas were returned to Mexico. This might seem to be a nightmare scenario, but would it really be so bad? Adding 60 million or so "Anglos" to Mexico's population would instantly make it a bilingual country. The wealth of the north combined with the labor force in the south could create a potent economic superpower. The northerners would demand better governance than has sometimes come from Mexico City in the past. If the northerners didn't feel they were getting a fair deal, they would secede again, or perhaps parts of the south would, repeating history in a different form. The America that didn't fight and win the war with Mexico would be different but possibly better, and no worse than the America that did not fight and win the war with Canada. By this I mean that people tend to be prejudiced in favor of their own timeline and not consider that an alternate history could have been better or worse.

    In the case of Israel/Palestine, we often hear of the two-state solution and less often, the one-state solution. Other integers must be considered. The no-state solution would evacuate the entire area permanently and plant lots of cedars. Property-owners and refugees would be compensated for their inconvenience and loss. In many cases you would have to compensate both an Israeli claimant and a Palestinian claimant to the same property. This would still be cheaper and more humane than continued human occupation of the area. Fortunately, there is a ready source of income to fund this project. The incorporated park of "HolyLand" would be a continuing site of religious pilgrimage for many centuries, and the high admission charges would insure that the displaced Israelis and Palestinians would be well-compensated in their new homes in the countries of their choice in Europe, the Americas, Africa, Asia, or Australia. Visitors to the HolyLand park would find it as hard to imagine the park grounds were once a battlefield as visitors to EuroDisney do. The park would be governed by a council composed of Jewish rabbis, Muslim ayatullahs, Christian priests, Buddhist monks, Sihks, Hindus, and members of other religions, with most employees being neutral Buddhist monks and secular scholars. Religious sites would be operated in a secular manner as museums most days, with multi-religious sites holding Islamic functions on Fridays, Jewish functions on Saturdays, and Christian functions on Sundays. Visitors to the park would be issued a sackcloth robe and would be required to bring their own food and water since all vestiges of electrical and water infrastructure would have been removed. Complex chemicals and technologies, such as lighters and matches, would not be allowed, while simple substances such as salt, oil, and soap would be allowed to be carried inside the park. These austere measures and strict policing would reduce the chance of violence.

    That's a no-state solution, but what of a three-state solution? This solution could also work with a rump Israel, a rump Palestine, and the neutral third state enveloping the middle land and all shared religious sites. Rather than being abandoned, a variation on this would be for the central state to be a secular union of the peaceful, moderate members of both communities, with the 30-50% of radical Zionist Israelis in their own "Zion" enclave, the 30-50% radical Islamicist Palestinians in their own enclave, and the moderate ones of both communities who just want to get along in the largest group. This would not be a peace park but would have to be free of explosives and automatic weapons, and be highly policed. Unlike the area today, civilized life might have a chance of succeeding (without religion).

    The nation-state-based world order may not be the most ideal, but until a transcending and unifying idea takes its place, it would at least be better for it to function peacefully.

    Inspiration for peace parks comes from the DeMilitarizedZone between the two Koreas, one of East Asia's richest wildlife reserves. The experience of Chernobyl after 1986 also suggests what much of the abandoned world parkland may look like as it restores itself.

    Rather than being imposed worldwide from above by the community, people could encourage their countries to drop their territorial disputes and/or convert lands in disputed border areas into national parks.

    Warning: It may make people angry when you propose turning their entire country into a wilderness area.

    Saturday, January 17, 2009

    CH4 on Planet Four

    Major news: A NASA press release today and article in Science gives details of the emissions of methane from the surface of Mars. This would seem to raise the probability of finding life to 50% or better. I checked Intrade to see if they were offering a contract on it; they weren't (altho Steve Jobs leaving as CEO this year was at 70%). Some people posting on news sites seem to be resistant to any ideas of life beyond the Earth, but it's really not unexpected, as meteor impacts have thrown tons of matter from Mars to Earth and vice versa over the millions and billions of years. They'll get their heads around it before too long. 




    Friday, October 31, 2008

    To Serve Man


    Best Twilight Zone… Ever? -tho I have half a dozen favorites near this level.