Saturday, July 19, 2008

To the Gates of Hell! (managing the capital)

Recent polls show Barack Obama leading in Nevada. With this, the best guess as to the electoral vote is now 325 to 199 in favor of Obama. Perceptive observers will also note that the red states have contracted considerably and have now taken the form of a 3-headed snake, with the rattle, or tail being Arizona, and the three heads formed by Louisiana, Alabama, and Kentucky. Students of mythology may note the resemblance to Cerberus, the three-headed dog (with the tail of a snake) that guards the gates of hell in Greek mythology, and a private New York based equity firm which recently bought Chrysler back from Daimler. Interestingly, McCain promised to take America "to the gates of hell" if necessary, to pursue Osama Bin Laden during breaks between naps, golf, and campaign fundraisers.

McCain's price on Intrade has fallen to 29 or 30 cents. It may be worthwhile to invest in McCain as a hedge. In the increasingly unlikely event that he wins, you will be able to use the money you receive to leave the country.

Some crazy names are being thrown around for VP, even on Intrade and Rasmussen. I think Obama will choose Dodd, but Richardson or Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer might be a possibility. Only Richardson is registering on Rasmussen. Dodd had a 1-2.5% chance on intrade. McCain could generate some excitement and interest with Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Vice Presidential Markets
To Win Democratic Vice-Presidential Nomination
Hillary Clinton 14.7
Kathleen Sebelius 18.5
Evan Bayh 12.0
Joe Biden 11.0
Tim Kaine 11.0
Claire McCaskill 8.6
Bill Richardson 9.3
Ed Rendell 5.2

To Win Republican Vice-Presidential Nomination
Mitt Romney 32.0
Tim Pawlenty 16.0
Charlie Crist 7.5
Sarah Palin 13.9
Mike Huckabee 12.1
John Thune 15.0
Mark Sanford 6.0
Carly Fiorina 10.0
Bobby Jindal 7.5

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